Doctors won't be spared, as cutting-edge robotics will do some jobs more precise than they can. An ... [ ] older doctor with shaky hands and less-than-perfect eyesight will easily be replaced by a robot who doesn't take off Wednesday to golf. Just because you turn the page on the calendar, it doesn't mean that things will be radically different. History shows that most major events unfold slowly and then happen all of a sudden. The start of 2020 will continue the current trends that we are witnessing right now.

AI means lots of different things to different people. But the really important development in the last decade has been the spectacular improvements in machine learning, a version of AI that allows software to exhibit cognitive capacities through training by examples. The most stunning advances have been in pattern recognition, such as voice or facial recognition, and also in cognitive performance with programs such as AlphaGo Zero, that basically taught itself to play Go better than any human players. For business, it has been called the most important general-purpose technology of our time. It overcomes the difficulty of programming tacit knowledge, which used to limit computers to reducing demand for people to perform routine, rules-based tasks.

Work means everything to us. But our beliefs around work are no longer plausible. In fact, they've become ridiculous, because there's not enough work to go around, and what there is of it won't pay the bills, writes James Livingston. The following is the first of two adapted excerpts from historian James Livingston's new book, "No More Work: Why Full Employment is a Bad Idea." Work means everything to us.

Work means everything to us Americans. For centuries – since, say, 1650 – we've believed that it builds character (punctuality, initiative, honesty, self-discipline, and so forth). We've also believed that the market in labour, where we go to find work, has been relatively efficient in allocating opportunities and incomes. And we've believed that, even if it sucks, a job gives meaning, purpose and structure to our everyday lives – at any rate, we're pretty sure that it gets us out of bed, pays the bills, makes us feel responsible, and keeps us away from daytime TV. These beliefs are no longer plausible. In fact, they've become ridiculous, because there's not enough work to go around, and what there is of it won't pay the bills – unless of course you've landed a job as a drug dealer or a Wall Street banker, becoming a gangster either way.